New update
As I said before, you need a lot of bets (1500 bets are not a lot)
also remember to upgrade your bankroll.
only 350 bets. yes i would keep everyone involved🙂
Still relatively new here, but:
Given that you have access to only one book, I think you are going to have a very high degree of variance. The current downtrend your on is very rough, but the math still works out the same.
I like to keep my time to match start lower than you do. Sometimes down to 12 hours. Especially when I have had an upswing, I do not want to potentially place bets on matches that will lead to a high degree of variance in value output.
You should not be so quick to evaluate your result as you have too few bets placed. Please see the big data statistics. With enough bets, all bet types have good results. 
The same is for sports. So try having everything enabled, and turnover as much of your bankroll as you can, placing many bets.
Variance will have less impact on your result when you have a significant number of placed bets. But we’re talking about thousands of bets - so keep betting and you’ll profit.
Also, remember we have the profit guarantee as well. 
Update . Slowly to get decrease my negative .
I change my value percentage min 5% . Min 0dd 1 , max 3.2
Min stake 0.5 because i was scare it will lose many like before . But still -65 % roi
Do you mean that you have set your Max stake to 0.5% (you wrote Min stake but I suppose it is a typo) ?
If that is the case you will not have a good staking strategy since the Kelly criterion will be very limited (basically if Kelly would have suggested 100 units on a bet, your max will limit it at around 15 units; ) and you will actually be betting with a 0.5% flat staking strategy. I have some old post where I give some calculating example and explanation of how the Kelly staking works. Note that we use a percentage of the Kelly.
I suggest that you do the following: Keep your actual bankroll updated, deselect Adjust_For_Open_Bets (AFOB), set Kelly at 10%, place as many bets as possible. With possible I also mean match start within 24 hours; the shorter time span the better because you will turn the money with higher frequency (I actually sort my matches offers after time to start and not value. Better with two bets at 4% then one bet at 5%) . Your min Value of 5% is quite high, which is good if you get enough bets in. If not enough bets are available you will have to lower it (do not go below 3.9%).
Good luck and keep those fingers busy! 
I only have one problem with Kelly… Although it seems like the best way to optimize your roi and profits, the bet size is calculated based on the value offered at that moment… However, almost all bets placed have a totally different value when match start is close (the closing value can be greater or lesser value, although normally the final value is always less than the initial value). So your calculated stake is actually not the optimal imo…What I would do is define a minimum value where almost all calculated bets exceed my maximum bet. I would not place 1.5% or 2% edge/value bets as the stakes would be low. Then playing with a higher ev will converge on flat bets.
I hope I am clear on my point
Hey thank for your advice . I follow what you tell . And its so helpful . Its still negative but its keep decreasing my negative . I follow your set and also i deselect adjust for open bet like u suggest .
Kelly 10%
Max stake 1%
min value 4%
Odd min 1 / max 3.2
Max stake 1% is ok rite ?
1 Like
Hi,
yes that looks right. 1% max will only in extreme cases limit your bet size. With 10% Kelly you will have smaller staking so that you can place many bets.
Do not forget to adjust your current bankroll when significant changes have occurred.
Good luck!
What you describe is not a problem with Kelly. It is a problem that the CLV, usually, will decrease closer to match start.
That problem is, IMHO, not in any way solved by your staking strategy.
Sorry for asking . What is IMHO ? And should i change my time match to 12 hour sometime ? Or maybe on weekend ?
I woud suggest odds from 1.57 to 3.30
What’s the point of placing bets on odds 1.01 and risk your stake money?
For less variance, choose odds between 1.50-2.7
YOU NEED TO BERT ON THE BETTER LEAGUES
BET 365 OVERS DOING WELL ODDS RANGE 1.45-3.50 EDGE 2.20
in my backtest filter over the last 12 months
recommended leagues:
Austria
- Bundesliga
Argentina
- Primera Division
Belgium
- Jupiler League
- Cup
Brazil
- Serie A
Denmark
- Superliga
- Cup
England
- Premier League
- Championship
- League One
- League Two
- League Cup
- FA Cup
Finland
- Veikkausliiga
France,
- League 1
- League 2
Germany
- Bundesliga
-
- Bundesliga
- DFB Pokal
Greece
- Super league
Italy
- Serie A
- Serie B
Spain
- La liga
- Copa Del Rey
Netherlands
- Eredivisie
- Super Cup
Norway
- Eliteserien
- OBOS - 1. div
- Cup
Poland
- Ekstraklasa
Portugal
- Primeira liga
- Cup
Scotland
- Premier League
- Championship
- Cup
Sweden
- Allsvenskan
- Superettan
Switzerland
- Super league
Russia
- Premier League
Turkey
- Super liga
USA
- MLS
International
- Champions League
- Europa League
- Africa Cup of Nations
American Football
- NFL
Baseball
- MLB
Basket
- NBA
- WC Qualifiers
Great! Thanks for sharing!
IMHO → In My Humble Opinion
You should always keep time to match start as short as possible, while getting enough bets.
I sort my bets according time to match start.
To sad that in my country only can get 1xbet
