You should not be so quick to evaluate your result as you have too few bets placed. Please see the big data statistics. With enough bets, all bet types have good results.
The same is for sports. So try having everything enabled, and turnover as much of your bankroll as you can, placing many bets.
Variance will have less impact on your result when you have a significant number of placed bets. But we’re talking about thousands of bets - so keep betting and you’ll profit.
Do you mean that you have set your Max stake to 0.5% (you wrote Min stake but I suppose it is a typo) ?
If that is the case you will not have a good staking strategy since the Kelly criterion will be very limited (basically if Kelly would have suggested 100 units on a bet, your max will limit it at around 15 units; ) and you will actually be betting with a 0.5% flat staking strategy. I have some old post where I give some calculating example and explanation of how the Kelly staking works. Note that we use a percentage of the Kelly.
I suggest that you do the following: Keep your actual bankroll updated, deselectAdjust_For_Open_Bets (AFOB), set Kelly at 10%, place as many bets as possible. With possible I also mean match start within 24 hours; the shorter time span the better because you will turn the money with higher frequency (I actually sort my matches offers after time to start and not value. Better with two bets at 4% then one bet at 5%) . Your min Value of 5% is quite high, which is good if you get enough bets in. If not enough bets are available you will have to lower it (do not go below 3.9%).
Good luck and keep those fingers busy!
I only have one problem with Kelly… Although it seems like the best way to optimize your roi and profits, the bet size is calculated based on the value offered at that moment… However, almost all bets placed have a totally different value when match start is close (the closing value can be greater or lesser value, although normally the final value is always less than the initial value). So your calculated stake is actually not the optimal imo…What I would do is define a minimum value where almost all calculated bets exceed my maximum bet. I would not place 1.5% or 2% edge/value bets as the stakes would be low. Then playing with a higher ev will converge on flat bets.
Hey thank for your advice . I follow what you tell . And its so helpful . Its still negative but its keep decreasing my negative . I follow your set and also i deselect adjust for open bet like u suggest .
Kelly 10%
Max stake 1%
min value 4%
Odd min 1 / max 3.2
Hi,
yes that looks right. 1% max will only in extreme cases limit your bet size. With 10% Kelly you will have smaller staking so that you can place many bets.
Do not forget to adjust your current bankroll when significant changes have occurred.
Good luck!
What you describe is not a problem with Kelly. It is a problem that the CLV, usually, will decrease closer to match start.
That problem is, IMHO, not in any way solved by your staking strategy.
IMHO → In My Humble Opinion
You should always keep time to match start as short as possible, while getting enough bets.
I sort my bets according time to match start.
What the … , yesterday was a nice ride .
Today was totally horrible. Yesterday it was decrease my negative . But today totally two time my negative ! -100% ROI ??!
I think its the time of year :)…low quality football, and othe rthings…I cannot stop th erot either…3 days on the trot heading downhill…so, looking forward to the next upswing!
I dont want to jinx ,but I am in a profit overall…but last week started out 30% higher than I am today…its annoying because I am not doing anything different. Its out of my hands I guess, and down to sheer luck