I guess I’m going to be claiming my free month as I’m now running at -10%.
I suppose someone has to be an outlier, just wish it wasn’t me! I appreciate the inevitability of variance, but really didn’t expect I could be running at a loss after 1500 bets. Maybe unrealistic expectations, I don’t know, but I intentionally went in to this to put as many bets down as possible as quickly as possible and have managed 1500 in 4 weeks. But now I have to slow down due to being limited by a couple of bookies and not willing to risk more to make up for my losses. I don’t see how my profit line can be so decoupled from the CLV - is this still within normal variance?
Would appreciate if anyone has any words of encouragement
Please see my reply to you in the other post you commented here.
Contact support via our website chat and we’ll help you with the complimentary free month (profit guarantee).
I’ve been at it for close to three months. The first month, I had a very respectable 20% ROI. The second month, I lost most of those gains, and ended up around 5%. I battled through a lot of variance, and it was frustrating, but this past month has been fantastic. I’m sitting at 130% ROI.
I keep a very detailed spreadsheet that automatically updates with each bet. It tracks my P/L at different odds ranges, value ranges, days of the week, and elapsed time between placing a bet and the beginning of the match. I’m going to start tracking my P/L between different sports and leagues, but this has helped me get an idea of where my comfort zone is as a value bettor.
I’ve made a couple of changes to my approach so far that seem to have paid off. The first is betting only on values above 3.99%. I likely jumped the gun, as I really don’t have enough data on value wagers below 4%, but I noticed that a lot of my variance was coming from these lower value bets. I may start testing that out again at some point, but for now this is where I’ve set my lower limit at. Second, I never bet on matches that are more than 24 hours out. I know a lot of people suggest only wagering on games that start within 2-6 hours, but my data has shown that I’ve been profitable all the way up until that one day mark. In fact, my highest profit margin has been on wagers within 48 minutes before game time, and between 12-24 hours prior.
I’m not necessarily making any recommendations, as I’m still very new at this and everybody differs in terms of risk tolerance, etc. I’m just telling you how I was able to find a plan that I feel comfortable with, and how I am dealing with variance. Also, my sample sizes are still relatively small, so I’m sure I’ll be tweaking my strategy over time as I accumulate more statistical information.
One other thing that may or may not apply to you. I was brand new to sports betting when I started (I had never placed a single bet in my life). I’ve made a lot of mistakes; most of them due to a lack of understanding about how the different bookmakers lay out their odds, and not understanding betting terminology. A lot of the issues that I faced early on have been corrected through educating myself, and interacting with the bookmaker sites as much as possible.
It is not very uncommon on being at a loss after 1000-2000 bets. It is just variance. If you are at loss after 10 000 bets then it is an outlier performance.
For example October for me was quite horrendous but quite normal still
My CLV is quite flat for a long period because I have been limited in pretty much all soft bookies and had to bet a lot of sharp bookies. Now I fortunately have three soft bookies and CLV has increased significantly
thanks for the input! Out of interest, how many bets have you placed in your 3 months?
One of my concerns now is that because I’m down (around -40% of my bankroll, after 1700 bets, whereas my CLV suggests I should have made around 75%!), I’m having to reduce my bet size, so if I experience a swing back in my favour, I’m not going to make up for the losses because of the smaller wins.
Plus, at this point, I really don’t see any value in me analysing anything beyond making sure I stick to higher value and lower odds. We are told that 1000-2000 bets is the bare minimum to start drawing any conclusions, so there’s simply not enough data to start looking at which sports are doing better, or how far out the match is when I place the bet. I suspect I would need to get up to nearer 10000 bets before the data becomes useful to analyse at that lower level of detail…
thanks for the reply. A loss would be one thing but losing almost half my bankroll after 1600+ bets was not what I banked on… I’d be interested to know how many bets you placed in October when you had that downturn…I understand a bad month is inevitable, but it would be really useful to understand how long a downturn can normally last in terms of bets, rather than in terms of time, because obviously the number of bets you put down will have a big impact on whether you overcome variance within any given month…
Signed up for a month after seeing a review by someone ‘claiming’ to be running a live account. After the first week or so I was up and down but thought it would turn around, bearing in mind the ‘reviewers’ profits were soaring at the same time. Anyway I seemed to have hit a downward spiral and although I was only £100 down I decided to just start logging bets without actually placing them to see what transpired. I am now up to around 500 bets and there is no sign of any improvement. Meanwhile the ‘reviewer’ goes more & more into profit. Either the reviewer is faking results or I am doing something wrong, but I have no idea what. I have lost a fair amount to the bookies and thought this was my way of revenge. I know 500 bets is not a significant amount but time in placing bets is a factor, hence why I just started logging without placing the actual bet. I have posted a screenshot of my graph. Any advice on where I am going wrong or advice on a winning strategy would be appreciated.
Hi and welcome to RebelBetting!
I understand your frustration. Downswings have been discussed countless times here. Read this article:
If you toss a coin 1500 times, there is a 52% chance you will get a streak of 10 heads or tails . This means if you place 1500 bets with an average true odds of 2.0 you have to expect 10 losses in a row. Or 10 wins. See this calculator.
Even if you have an edge, you have to expect temporary downswings.
Simon, thanks for the response to my question. Is it really possible that 2 different people randomly placing these bets (as they pop up on screen) under the same criteria (settings), can have completely different results, the only difference possibly being bets placed at different times of the day. Surely person A and person B would follow a similar pattern?.
Is it easier to achieve profit using the exchanges as opposed to just bookmakers.
Is it better to block particular sports or types of bet (over/under etc), does it matter at all?
If they place the same odds they get identical results.
Same bets different times = different odds = different profit (but should not differ significantly).
Value betting on sharp exchanges is much more difficult, and not something we recommend for beginners.
Blocking particular sports and markets is not something you need to do, we have already removed combos that are unprofitable (overs, some draws etc).