My valuebetting journey, updated weekly


I started valuebetting about a week ago. Since my goal is to live of my investments this is, at the moment, a really interesting experiment for me. Hopefully it can become profitable enough to implement in my daily work. I have worked with sportsbetting before so feel fairly comfortable with this kind of investment.

I will try to post weekly updates here, both for you guys but also for myself.

Currently running with 30% stake sizing, 0,5% max stake, minimum value 2% and oddsrange 1.3-4.0
Playing in Swedish krona so my 1300 profit is not as good as it could seem.

Betting on all sports and all markets to evaluate the outcome.
Will tweak settings at 5000 bets, or is that to early? Maybe 10000 bets if I last that long.

All opinions and advice are welcome!


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Hi everyone!

Here is the promised update on my second week of betting, decided to post my updates on mondays from now on. Got some scares from the swings a couple of times but decided to trust the process. Filled up my different accounts so now have a bankroll of 100k.
Here are my settings:
Stake sizing 30%
Max stake size 1%
Oddsrange 1.3 - 4.0
Valuerange 1.9 - 50%

After 547 total bets the results are a 7666 profit with an EV of 8840. I am pretty happy with it, looking forward to see how this continues! Trying to mentally prepare for the downswing I know will come sooner or later.


Spännande! Jag började för en vecka sedan. Jag kan se att våra resultat skiljer sig åt en del vilket är spännande. Över och under-spel har för min del inte fungerat alls. Mina settings är:
Stake sizing 30%
Max stake size 1%
Oddsrange 1.4 - 2.6
Valuerange 2% - 10% (För det mesta tar jag bara spel mellan 4-6 %)

Bifogar lite rapporter från mitt konto

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Spelar för små summor än så länge då jag testar verktyget. Började med ca: 1000 kr och har nu ca: 1350 efter 1 vecka.

Sorry för svenskan men jag orkade inte svar på engelska för tillfället och jag förutsatte utifrån din text att du är svensk?

Thank you for sharing! (I am swedish but will reply in english for the foreign users)
Yes, it seems that after approximately the same amount of bets our results in the different markets vary. However, I find it very interesting that we are both making a profit. This gives me faith that this form of investment will indeed work in the long run. But time will tell, if the results lasts after 5000 bets I will feel much more confident.


A note on volume.
I try to place all the bets I can find over 1.9%. The reason is that I want to get a big volume, the goal is to bet 50-150% of my bankroll each day. The weekend was great since I could bet a lot on the early markets and then again on the late markets.
With my current turnover of 295000 I have a EV of 9640. I am hoping to be able to quadruple that in the coming 4 weeks. This is the reason I went from 0,5% to 1% max bet. I hope it will not turn out to be a mistake

wow. are you able to consistently get £1k bets on !?

Nope, 1k sek. That is like 100 euros depending on the exchange rate

Would you mind sharing the bookmakers That you use for your bets mate ?

Sure thing! I recently got limited on a few sites but I am using comeon, bet365, betsson, svenskaspel and atg

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Week 3 and 1138 bets

Here is my weekly update, I went from small profit to quite big loss. Expected profit 21k and the results are -16k, a 37k difference.

Basically still using the same settings:
Kelly 30
Max stake size 1%
Oddsrange 1.3 - 4.0
Value range 2 - 50%
ROI is -16,24%

@hanna @simon @bjorn is this normal? Can you give your opinions? I am sticking with the program but I am feeling sceptical at the moment.

Ouch! I had a really bad week aswell. Lost all gains from last week. So +/- 0 more or less.

Max stake is too low, it caps you and the kelly is useless. Lower the kelly or raise your stake %

What settings are you using?

What settings are you using?

I use kelly 25 and max stake 5%

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@paiktis And how does your graph look like with those settings. Dont you think it is too risky and extremely swingy ?

@MarieFred i hope you recover mate

Thx for your reply!

Also would like to see your graph with those settings if possible. Or get some stats maybe?

My graph has regular touch points of EV and it is fairly balanced. I do not know 100% if it is money management or maybe the way I choose and play my matches but i am pretty sure it is…
1372 bets total