Tried those settings and they work really well so far. Thx a lot!
Thank you for your reply, that graph looks a Little nicer than mine =)
Here is an update on week 4 after 1536 bets.
Following @paiktis advice I raised my max stake to 5% and it seemed to improve my results somewhat.
I am now -9393 with an expected profit of 25362. ROI is âupâ to -9,39% from last weeks -16,24%.
So things are looking better.
As you can see âBasketballâ and âOverUnderâ is where I am loosing money. I am thinking of skipping those bets for a while, any thoughts/advice on that?
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Can anyone else share their results on overunder and basketball? Maybe I am just unlucky with the games i picked.
Maybe someone who made alot of bets =)
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Hey i am happy you managed to improve your
results . Here is a a link on a valuebet similation (i am not the creator someone in the community has made it.) Put your averages in parameters and you ll notice that there is of course possibility to run like you did in only 1500 bets. Make it 10.000 bets and you see that you will be almost surely in profit and most times near the ev line.
So i dont think its over underâs fault.
https://walcontent.shinyapps.io/vb_sims/
Edit : Here is a random simulation with your ev and avg odds. Notice that exactly after 1500 bets it is -3000 or -3500 (euros not SEK !!! That means -30k sek right) !
IMG_20191118_171445|252x500
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Thx! Cant see the link though
Is it visible now ???
Yes! Going to a meeting now but will check it out later. Thanks alot
Sorry to bother all the time but another thing i ve noticed and want to mention is that your ev of 2.88% is probably the cause of that variance. Next step please try avoiding 2% value bets and try aiming 2.5% and above. Me in one week and 400 bets have avg of 4.3 something like that. That is a huge difference that decrease variance significantly. Make these adjustments in the simulator also and see the result by yourself . Peace 
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Keep in mind, my simulator is quite primitive, it simply simulates the N bets outcomes with a fixed coefficient, steak and value. And ignores the bankroll updates and Kelly criterion.
Maybe later I will add more features: like bankroll updates after k bets, Kelly criterion and maybe range of odds like in real life (not fixed odds), p-value estimation etc.
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Look.
If you bet on bets with coeff 2.0 (or 50%) and you believe that real probability is 52.5% (or +5% ev) you need about 5000 bets to mathematically check it with 95% ensure:
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Thank you again for the advice!
I saw a post from the CEO Björn claiming he used 1% value setting but thought that was too low and set mine to 2%. But after playing around with Ryans simulator I agree with you that going for higher values seem safer even though it will affect volume negatively. But better safe than sorry!
Wow! Great work on the simulator and thank you for your help.
If you choose to put in the time and work in the future and add the features you mention in the simulator I think it could be an awesome tool for finding the âperfectâ betting settings for profit.
Imagine running 10000 simulations on 10000 bets with all the features and analyzing the data from that!
Here is my weekly update after 2203 bets and 1 205 118 turnover.
Profit: -9801
Exp profit: 35 097
Ev: 2,91%
Avg odds: 2,08
Avg stake: 546
This might be it for me if I dont get that free month from the profit guarantee. How are you guys doing?
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Week 6 Update
I got a free month since I was not making a profit. Quick and superb service!
Since things really havent been working so good for me I decided to try something else and stopped betting on over/under. Still in the red but a 6k profit this last week so things are looking slightly better!
Profit: -3280
Exp profit: 41 747
Ev: 2,87%
Avg odds: 2,08
Avg stake: 564
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Your odds range 1.3 - 4.0 is very broad, it will give a lot of variance. The closer to 2.0, the less variance. I recommend tightening it, perhaps 1.5 to 3.0.
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What the point do not bet in less than 1.5?
Thx for the tip. I rarely place bets over 3 but good to know
How is it going for you Ryan, steady profit?
I am from Ukraine, so I canât use a lot of bookies and it seems like Ukrainian players have a huge limitation, so my progress is very slow. And actually I donât care about profit, I just want to make enough bets for significant results for proof of concept. It is more about science for me rather business
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