Week 7 update, after 2820 bets.
Finally seeing a profit again after being in the red since week 3. Still far away from expected profit but definitely improving.
What I did differently for the last two weeks was that I stopped betting on O/U and that seems to have been working for me. The volume of bets decreased somewhat due to lack of time this week.
Also basketball has improved a bit!
Time for the week 8 update, 3039 bets in.
The results keep improving so Iām happy! Still nowhere near my expected profit but at least Iām not losing money at the moment.
My current settings are:
stake size 25%
max bet 5%
value 1.9-15%
odds 1.5-3.0
I am getting limited all over though. Currently using only 3 websites and Iām limited on two of them so there I can only play on the biggest leagues.
Still not betting on OverUnder. I am curious though, can anyone let me know their results from OverUnder the last few weeks? Maybe I was just very unlucky?
Hi Marie,
We communicated about this on another thread about a month ago.
I am happy to hear that you are back in profit.
I was heading toward 0 profit from 24000 units back then but things have improved a lot and now I am back at around 15000 units after almost 6000 bets.
My O/U stats were awful (-4%) a month ago but now O/U is positive (0.3%).
I switched from soft to sharp around 3000 bets and now use a broker who does the analytics for me. In my case (bets placed with IBC, ISN and Dafabet but at this site shown as 3et) my overall O/U is looking solid but one bet type (overs full-time) has lost me around 1000 EUR. Even worse is AH home football bets which have lost 1400 EUR.
So what I am trying to say is that a month ago O/U looked like the big culprit whereas AH Home Football was a bigger liability. However that was impossible to see on Rebel stats (report).
So it might just be one bet type that is letting you down yet you are leaving out profit making bets as well. I have spoken to some experts about this issue and they believe that variance is still to blame for my losses from those two bet types. So if I were you I would probably continue with all bet types for another 5-7.000 bets.
I will take a good look at my stats when I reach 10.000 and also do an excel to check whether there is a strong correlation between value and profit. Then maybe stop doing AH Home and FT Overs if they are still performing badly.
Marie, how many (5%) MAX bets do you get? My max is 1% and I have had two separate days where 25% of my entire bank disappeared. 5% sounds incredibly risky.
hello mate. do you only betting on 3et? do you have any idea how much is the bet opportunity per month / per week?
Hi Steven,
I get signals from 3et, Dafabet, SBO and 18bet. But from my last approx. 3000 bets it is 3et - 2050, Dafa 770, SBO 430 and 18bet 60. This is since October 16th.
I donāt exactly sit at my computer all day so assume that I am missing out on loads of prospective bets. But I bet everything across the board before I go to bed - American hoops are very lucrative even 6-7 hours before game start.
You wonāt be able to get late value with this though. I bet loads between 1-2% value and only get over 4% on occasion. But if you do that there should be no problem getting to 300-400 bets a week or more.
How much are you aiming for?
May i know your yield at the moment? My current yield is above EV (4.9%)
Right now i am placing about 2k bet per month
My yield is only 0.81% (EV 2.99%) but I am still recovering from the biggest crash I will hopefully ever experienceā¦ā¦
Yes I remember!
Glad to hear that you are also doing better.
I will listen to your advise and bring back O/U. Losing alot of volume without it so had been considering it anyway. However I will not bet on higher than over 2 goals in soccer. Also I never bet on more than AH -1.25 in soccer.
I havenāt had one single max bet yet. The highest has been 2,5%. I lost 20% of my bankroll very fast but that was with my old settings (max 1%)
I tried to change to your settings for 5 minutes and my stake size got smaller. I normally use Kelly 30% so no matter that I only bet 1% of bank a lower Kelly will still decrease some stakes (at least in my case).
Hi Guys!
Because of christmas since I am travelling Iāll just do a quick update. Turned on O/U and immediately lost 15000. Recovered quickly though but lost 7k on ah instead.
Expected profit 52000, profit 6900.
Happy Holidays!!!
Happy New Year!
What is your profit/loss from bets placed with 3et (only that bookie) and how many bets have you placed with them?
put time to match start 12 hours before and lower the odds to 1.2-2.5. You will get closer to EV. those settings produce high variation thatās why you are constantly down
Hello, how things is going with value betting? What about long distance is it working well?
it is very hard to profit from 3et, as it is the aggregator of Asian bookies. Unless only one of itās bookie (e.g. SBO, Maxbet) has standout odds. 18bet, Dafabet are better, but suggest you to open more Europe books.
How did it go mariefred?
