Update: value betting on sharp bookmakers

Do you use all sports and types of bets? or do you have some spatial configuration for each bookie?

Thanks for this, fascinating! Would it be possible to break this down further, and show, say, the sports yields for each of these? We might be able to work out where the exchange markets are genuinely ‘soft’.

Is the value calculated after commission or before?

Value calculation adjusts for commission (so, value is calculated after and you don’t have to think about it).

Okay thank you

2 posts were split to a new topic: Smarkets commission

Ok with the results from sharp books…seems really great…but is there serious traffic in terms of bets every day? This 6k bets is from one person? The actual yield means the real profit? Cause the 5% in betinasia sounds insane good

These are the type of questions Simon should be answering…

Simon,

Can you present us with the data from average valuebetting % divided by sports and type of bets?

Some people like me would like to get in Rebelbetting and pay for the subscription but cannot do so without access to more information. I can only access Sharp Bookmakers so there’s no reason to buy a subscription before having more data to make my process work.

Update 2023-06-22: last 6 months results, only sharps with at least 6000 bets placed.

It’s not just one person betting but many hundreds.

The large difference between CLV and yield (on BetInAsia in particular) is a bit strange, I haven’t analyzed why. Using a good Kelly strategy is one reason, but cannot explain everything.

Betting on sharps seems to be getting more profitable again, which is great. But as always, just know that it’s more difficult.

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Can we have Pinnacle stats as well just for the comparison and to know how sharp they really are.

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Got any new updates? Thinking about how I can continue value betting after I get limited everywhere…

Any updates betting on sharp bookmakers. Below is picture of my BetInAsia bets. Left most column is the value of the bet when it is set and in the table they are realised average CLV. As you can see CLV is negative in most odds and I really don’t understand why is it so. Any suggestions how to improve?

I am surprised that you managed get so many bets put down in the first place…

Here is my summary of the bookmakers that I am currently using. CLV is just too bad with all of those.

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Do you use any special settings for Asian Connect?

This is a good result for asianconnect and veikkaus. Couldnt you just focus on these 2 to make long term profit without the fear of getting limited?

I am using 2% min value percentage for the Asian Connect. Bet count is too low for just using asianconnect and veikkaus

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Veikkaus I’m using 5% and it seems to produce a decent amount of value bets.

Please update the results from sharp bookmakers and betbrokers