Thought I’d share my ValueBetting graph. Started with a bankroll of $1000 and I’ve bet about 4500 bets. About 3300 since ValueBetting was launched and the rest during beta period.
I started during the beta with Kelly 100% and bet all odds ranges. I was quickly down 20%. Got back up and followed the EV line but then dropped 37.5% to all time low. Realised that Kelly 100% causes huge swings. After that I’ve changed my settings to pretty much what I have now. See settings further down in post. I have my funds spread on 12 bookies where most is allocated and turned over at 4-5 of them.
I bet on basically everything that shows up with my filters. It’s all about as much turnover as possible to get profit over time. But also placing many bets to even out the graph. With that in mind I’m happy to place bets even at bookmakers where I’m limited to $3-$4 (if it’s a bookmaker that goes reasonable fast to place the bets). Bigger games on those bookmakers will occasionally let me place larger bets, but I’m happy with smaller as well.
If I turn over $1000 a day I’m happy. $1000 is my goal on weekends, it’s tougher on a Monday. My average daily turnover since start is about $600 and 60 bets. Biggest turnover I’ve made on one day is $1738, this with a bankroll of about 1100 at that time. How is this possible? It was a Saturday with lots of matches and bets placed in the morning were graded and returned so I could bet the same funds over and over again.
I have daily ups and downs of $100-$200. The downs doesn’t bother me now when the long term graph is steadily upwards. But I can imagine the frustration if one starts with a big down period.
Odds: 1.5 - 2.75
Value: 1.5 - 8%
Hide starting after: 0.5 days (12 hrs)
Max stake: 2%
One thing to note is that my average stake is $10 even though many bets suggests 30-40. So I’m probably betting at an equivalent of Kelly 10-15% due to limits on some bookmakers.
To sum it all I have two rules
- Remember rule 1
An update after another 1500 bets which makes it 6000+. I’ve pretty much run sideways during these bets. About +$150 in total. I had a huge downswing in January which made me dive deep below the expected profit. During February/March I’ve made better than expected but it’s still a bit back to the green line.
If I just had gone on vacation in January
Changes since last update:
- Swedish regulatory changes. So I lost WilliamHill which was very profitable.
- Experimenting with lower min odds. Was 1.5 but is now 1.3. I thought that along with trying to make as many bets as possible, I also want to turnover as much as possible. It’s tough though when you loose a couple of max stake bets in a row. Too few bets in the range 1.3-1.5 though to be able to make any conclusions
With the regulatory changes I picked up “new customer” bonuses at Unibet, BWin and Nordicbet which totalled to about $850. It was very nice to very easily meed the turnover requirements while I was making lots of value bets anyway. The $850 profit is not included in the graph since this was bonuses which didn’t affect the systems actual performance. I can REALLY recommend this for you Swedes out there. Unibet has lowered their bonus though, but it’s still very nice.
Does it still wor after you have to login everytime with bankid?? Guess no odds stays that long??
(This is only for Swedes)
I only need to login with bankid the first time. After that I’m still logged in on the next bet. I will eventually be logged out of course if it’s too long until the next bet. So after the first login I just keep on betting.
It’s bad that they don’t allow username/password login. But this works also. I don’t feel like I’m missing bets due to the extra seconds it takes to login with bankid.
Willhill killed it all for me when closed down… Dont know if any others are any value??
Kambi bookmakers, like Unibet, 888sport etc have been very useful for me.
I also miss WilliamHill. Hoping for a license in Sweden in the future.
mm Im almost banned from Kambi… Couldnt even turn around bonus on 888bet last time. 4 bets then maxstake 0…
Lars, do you bet on all sports and markets?
So far yes I do bet on pretty much everything that comes up that matches my filters.
How can I keep track on daily bets via a phone
Can you give us a breakdown on your results based on sport?
Yes, I’ll try to compose some stats by sports tomorrow!
… and with tomorrow, I mean today! Hockey seems to be the best for me.
I’ve had a lousy last month with a current drawdown of almost 20%. Just got to keep on betting!
How much time is involved in placing so much bets?
I have the bankroll and did lot’s of casinos bonus in the past and looking to get back in the game to earn a € 500 monthly.
It’s difficult to say. One some bookmakers I can place the bet and log in the excel logbook in 20 seconds. But, I don’t bet all the bets in one day directly after each other.
During weekdays it helps a lot with a job where I’m at a computer. During weekends I typically go to the computer a couple of times and bet on everything that’s available at that moment.
I’ve 2 questions.
Do you recommend betting on
matches that still need something like 17h to start?
Do you think that it’s worthwhile to bet on matches which have values in between 1-2,5%?
For me, it depends on when I’m able to bet the next time. If it’s in the evening and I’m not going to be able to bet the next day I can bet on up to 24hrs. Just to let the money work instead of idling. If it’s for example Friday evening and I know I’m going to be betting on Saturday morning I will use shorter time frame.
Same goes for the %. I want to constantly have my funds in bets, not sitting on the account. So it depends on the availability of both myself and the number of bets.
Also, if your concern is that the value will drop when there’s a long time until match start, you might want to focus on bets with a higher edge.
What is the less profitable sport and the less profitable market according to your stats?
Yield per sport is in this order for me, with the highest on top
- American Football
Please note though that American Football and Baseball has about 100 bets or less each. Tennis has about 750. So there is lots of bets needed on each sport to make the stats more reliable.