Value Betting Starter Results - 1 month (italy)

I started with Rebel Betting with the two-week trial with a budget of € 100 and bets of € 2.
At the end of the trial period I signed up for the starter subscription and started with € 1,000.
Stake sizing 30% (sometimes during the weekend I exceed it)
Maximum stakes 1% (more or less)
Filter 1: odds from 1.2 to 1.9, 6 hours before the start
Filter 2: odds of 1.2 to 1.8, 48 hours before start time
All sports except basketball.
First two weeks only with Bet365, then I registered with Unibet.
99% of bets on Bet365, very few bets on Unibet.
These are the results


I also reported the bets on excel, mainly to make up the “hole” of 26/03/2022 and divided the results by odds range

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Update 18/04/2022 (week n.5 - starter)


And, like the previous post, excel table with correct bets & stats.

Very good results till now and nice stats.

Update 06/05/2022 (week n.8 - starter)

And, like the previous post, excel table with correct bets & stats.

From today I change the range of the odd: from 1.2 to 2.1

In bets with an odds range from 1.6 to 1.699 after 455 bets and 8600 € played, I have a negative performance of - 400 €.
Maybe I will consider to reduce or stop playing this odds range.

Update to 14/08/2022
After peaking in mid-May 2022, I spent the months of June and July 2022 with practically 0 balance. I played these two months with 50% reduced stakes. There has not been much play. Yesterday I started playing again with 1% of the budget. All settings remained unchanged.
Compared to what was said in the previous update of 06/05/2022, I still played the bets with odds between 1.6 and 1.699. As expected I continue to lose money in this range (maybe 600 bets is not a lot, but let’s see how it continues. if I get to 1000 bets without improving a little I really rule them out). The range between 1.2 and 1.4 has turned negative.
With the start of the major leagues and more matches I will return to making updates every month or so.


Hi, I play from Italy too.
I am writing to you because I would like to know how you do so many bets.
I also play only on bet365 but in 3 months, working hard enough, I managed to play only 2000 bets… any advice?

I was thinking maybe in the summer there are less bets… I am struggling too to find enough bets

2000 in 3 mesi non mi sembrano pochi comunque… Giochi su tutto quello che c’è? Coi settings di default?

Come settaggi ho:
Valore dal 4% al 50%
Quota da 1,4 a 2,7
15 Ore di anticipo

From April to the end of May 2022 I had an average of:
Mon to Thu 20/30 bets per day
Fri to Sun 70/80 bets per day

In the summer period from June to now practically all bets have been reduced to:
Mon to Thur 10 bets per day
Fri to Sun 30 bets per day

If you started during the summer months 2000 bets per day sounds good to me (that’s practically an average of 22 per day).

I have to tell you that on Fridays, Saturdays and Sundays when there are a lot of matches I exceed the 30% budget limit (I even reach double that).

The settings are as I wrote at the beginning, I only did a short period of not playing on the odds between 1.6 and 1.7 because they were constantly losing, then I started playing them again and the result did not change. I also used Unibet for a short time, but there were no bets and I closed it.

Update 9/16/2022
After a month at full capacity the results are back very positive + € 1,600 compared to 14/08/2022. Bets with odds between 1.6 and 1.7 became positive for the first time since the beginning. Bets with odds greater than 2 became very negative. Still a very good month, I hope to keep these results even in 30 days.
For every €100 profit I increase the stake by €1.
I am considering:

  1. the budget incement, not to increase stake, but to increase number of bets especially Friday Saturday and Sunday
  2. the possibility of switching to the “pro” subscription, but I can’t find a comprehensive comparison to the “starter” version especially regarding the incidence of bets with value higher than 7%
    to the next update in about a month.

Raga scusate, sono nuovo, avrei una domanda: ma nessuno è mai stato bannato dal bookmaker? Non c’è il rischio che dopo tante puntate si accorgono di qualcosa di anomalo e vi bloccano?

Bannato non lo so.
Sul forum ho letto che prima o poi giocando le “valuebet” vieni limitato, ma non bannato. Limitato nel senso che lo stake massimo che ti fanno usare è 2 € ad esempio.
Secondo me vieni bannato solo se infrangi le loro regole.
Quando sarò limitato sul mio account da B365 inizierò con altro account di un amico (cambiando telefono, con nuova sim intestata a lui e senza mai connettermi alla rete wi-fi di casa mia).

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Capito, grazie mille! Ho iniziato da un paio di giorni e mi son buttato subito sulla versione Pro.
Non sto comunque ottenendo molto successo :smiling_face_with_tear: Però sono arrivato a neanche 300 bet.

Questi settaggi dici che vanno bene?

Senza titolo

these are my settings, I have been using them since the beginning (in fact I may have increased the quota from 1.9 to 2).
I play 1%. I adjust the bankroll quite frequently, but only on the upside, never when it decreases.
I only use one broker because with the others I found few value bets, so I closed them and continue with b365 until they let me
I use two filters, one “far” 48h and one “near” 6h. At the weekend I disable the “far” one.
I removed the “adjust for open bet” flag
You just have to be patient.
300 plays is a few.
I also see that the average stake is 3€, so you’ve only just started betting 12€.
In fact if you open your own post with the results I’ll look at the differences between the starter and the pro.

I answered you in English only because the forum requires it.

Please write in English so the whole Community can read the posts :+1:t2:


Oh ok, i gonna speak in english, sorry @Bjorn

So, @MR88 , the difference between the “far” filter and the “near” one is just the different timing?

Also, removing the “Adjust for open bets” filter will increase the variance, right? Why did you diseable it?

Yes the two filters are the same except for the time. I created two for convenience over the weekend. The ‘near’ filter is set to 6h and the ‘far’ filter to 48h. At the weekend I disable the ‘far’ filter.

With “adjust for open bets” activated, the software should gradually offer you lower stakes depending on the bets that have not yet been completed.

With “adjust for open bets” deactivated the software should always propose the same stake.

Then as I have already written I do NOT respect during the weekend the “kelly criterion”.

Regarding variance I cannot tell you the difference between “adjuest for open bets” activated and deactivated.

I enclose the data I have calculated for myself of the drawdown (drawdown calculated as the difference between the highest and lowest peak of the total cash in a given time period).
I did the calculations day by day.
Period fron the beginning at 16/09/2022

The maximum drawdown I’ve had (since I started, counting the trial period when my bets were €2) was €800 or -18% on the maximum cash in the same period.
The average drawdown I had was €380 or -9%.
I hope I have understood and calculated the drawdown correctly.


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@MR88 sorry for not responding for I while.

I managed to get some profit but, as you can see here ( Betting with account limitations ), i got some limitations.

I think that I souldn’t bet 23€ per bet. How much do you bet per bet?